NUCLEAR CAPITAL: Restarting America’s Nuclear Fleet for AI Power

Zach Martin

Welcome to NUCLEAR CAPITAL, a KMKT I R Hub Radio exclusive. I'm Zach Martin. Today we're taking a fresh angle on the AI power story. Forget the reactors that haven't been built yet. We're talking about reactors that were built, ran for decades, were switched off, and are now being switched back on. Three of them in the United States. Think of a house that's been boarded up for a few years. It's a lot faster to reopen the plumbing and the wiring than to pour a new foundation on an empty lot. That's the logic behind this whole trade, and we'll test how far it actually goes.

Emily Martin

And I'm Emily Martin. Before we go further, a clear note. Everything we discuss today, including every company and transaction, is for informational and analytical purposes only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. We'll mention names like Constellation, Holtec, NextEra, Vistra, Oklo, and TerraPower because they're part of the story, not because we're pointing you toward a position. Now, Zach, the headline number. These three plants add up to roughly 2.25 gigawatts of firm power, backed by up to 4.4 billion dollars in Department of Energy loans and guarantees. That's the scale we're working with.

Zach Martin

Let's start with the one that carries the most history, Crane Clean Energy Center. Most listeners will know it by its old name, Three Mile Island Unit 1, in Londonderry Township, Pennsylvania. Here's the detail that jumped out at me. Constellation shut it down in September 2019, and it wasn't because the plant was failing. It was running at a 96.3 percent capacity factor in its final operating year. It closed because merchant power prices in that market didn't pay enough to keep it open. Great performance, wrong price signal.

Emily Martin

And the price signal changed because a new kind of buyer showed up. In September 2024, Microsoft signed a 20 year power purchase agreement with Constellation to power its data centers from this 835 megawatt unit. The Department of Energy then finalized a 1 billion dollar conditional loan commitment. Constellation is targeting a restart in the 2027 to 2028 window. I'd stress the word targeting. Reporting from POWER Magazine says Constellation and Microsoft have said it could come back as early as next year, but a target is still a target until the reactor is synchronized to the grid.

Zach Martin

Good distinction. Now Palisades, in Covert, Michigan, in Van Buren County. Holtec International owns it, and it's an 800 megawatt class plant. It shut down in May 2022 for economic reasons, was handed to Holtec for decommissioning, and then did something no U.S. reactor had done. In August 2025 it transitioned back to operating status for regulatory purposes. The federal backing there is a loan guarantee of up to 1.52 billion dollars, and that financing was finalized during the Biden administration.

Emily Martin

Palisades is the furthest along of the three, and it's also where the friction is showing, based on reporting from the last few weeks. Fuel loading began on August 30, 2026. In late September, Holtec acknowledged an incident that paused the process. A fuel assembly in core location H one tilted over after being released by the refueling machine. Per the license amendment request, it's sitting at about a 30 degree angle, with the lower end in its core position and the upper end leaning against the core shroud on the opposite side. The fuel rods kept their integrity, and none of the other assemblies were affected.

Zach Martin

So what's the fix? This is the part I love, because it's so physical. Holtec filed an emergency license amendment request on September 30. The NRC approved it in mid October, issued October 13 under urgent circumstances. The plan uses a containment polar crane and a custom fuel movement device that the plant team designed to reduce risk. The assembly stays at least 10 feet underwater while it's lifted into a transfer canister. That loaded canister weighs about 49,000 pounds. Then it goes to the equipment hatch, rides a trolley to the spent fuel pool, and a crane sets it down vertically. It's like pulling a single book out of a tight shelf without disturbing any of the others, except the book is a nuclear fuel assembly.

Emily Martin

And there's a nuance worth getting right. Local reporting from WNDU on October 20 notes that the 10 day implementation period in that amendment does not set a deadline for finishing the physical recovery. Holtec clarified that it applies to incorporating the amendment into the plant's licensing basis. So you may see a Friday, October 23 date floating around, but it isn't a completion deadline for the lift itself.

Zach Martin

There was a second Palisades headline that same week, wasn't there?

Emily Martin

Yes. On October 13, the NRC issued what's called a chilling effect letter to Holtec. The agency found a chilled work environment in the supply chain and quality assurance departments at Palisades, meaning employees there may be hesitant to raise safety concerns for fear of retaliation. The NRC was explicit that the finding is limited to those two departments and does not involve violations or significant plant safety issues. It expects Holtec to share the findings with employees, commission an independent evaluation, and submit a corrective action plan within 30 days. And the NRC said that, based on current information, the findings are not expected to affect the planned restart. I'd call that a signal to watch, not a verdict.

Zach Martin

I agree. When you're reviving a plant, the culture matters as much as the hardware. Okay, plant number three. Duane Arnold Energy Center, in Palo, in Linn County, Iowa. It's a 615 megawatt boiling water reactor and it was Iowa's only commercial nuclear station. It closed in August 2020 after a derecho, those fast moving straight line windstorms, knocked out off site power and damaged the cooling towers. At the 2020 power prices, NextEra decided repairs weren't worth it.

Emily Martin

And the turnaround there is fast. In late October 2025, NextEra announced the restart with a 25 year power purchase agreement with Google. The remaining output goes to Central Iowa Power Cooperative, and NextEra said Iowa energy customers will not bear costs associated with the power Google purchases. NextEra also signed agreements to buy out the minority owners, CIPCO and Corn Belt Power, to become the sole owner. Then on September 8, 2026, the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Dominance Financing, which many people still call the Loan Programs Office, closed a loan of up to 1.9 billion dollars.

Zach Martin

The jobs numbers are real too. The DOE counts about 1,500 construction jobs and more than 450 permanent operating jobs. The timeline is first quarter of 2029, pending NRC approval, which slipped slightly from earlier talk of late 2028. Reuters reported NextEra has already ordered major equipment, including a generator and cooling towers. That's the long lead stuff. When a company orders the cooling towers, it's past the press release stage.

Emily Martin

Now let's add up the money, because that's where the investor attention goes. Palisades at 1.52 billion, Crane at 1 billion, Duane Arnold at 1.9 billion. That's roughly 4.42 billion in closed or conditional federal loans and guarantees. But I find the more interesting story isn't the federal money. It's who is standing behind the project.

Zach Martin

Walk me through that, because it flips the old playbook.

Emily Martin

Traditionally, a regulated utility builds generation against a forecast of regional demand, then asks its state commission to let it recover the cost from ratepayers. With these restarts, the order is reversed. Microsoft signs for 20 years on Crane. Google signs for 25 years on Duane Arnold. Those commitments come before anyone orders a fuel assembly, and they're what make a retired asset financeable at all. The hyperscaler becomes the credit anchor. In effect, data center operators aren't simply buying electricity. They're underwriting the capital.

Zach Martin

That's the discipline lesson hiding in here. You don't start the build until the buyer has put their name on the contract. It's like a contractor who won't pour concrete until the deposit clears. And it also tells us something about how scarce firm power has become. Companies this size don't sign 25 year commitments for a plant that's been dark for years unless the alternative is worse.