The Nuclear Uprate Era: How Big Tech Is Expanding the Grid

Zach Martin

Welcome to NUCLEAR CAPITAL, on I R Hub. I'm Zach Martin, and this is a twenty minute conversation with Emily Martin. Here's the headline. On October 6, 2026, Google signed a 20 year power purchase agreement with Constellation Energy. It supports 890 megawatts of new nuclear capacity. And here's the twist. Nobody is pouring concrete for a new reactor. That capacity comes from uprates at eleven existing Constellation units in Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, all of them plugged into the PJM Interconnection grid. I'm calling this the uprate era.

Emily Martin

And I want to start with why that phrase fits, Zach. For years the nuclear story was about what's coming, the new designs, the new sites. This week the story is about getting more out of what we already own. Constellation says it will invest more than $4.3 billion in the work. That means turbines, controls, and efficiency improvements. The first extra power is expected by 2028, and the full 890 megawatts by the end of 2032. Those are dates a utility planner can actually write on a calendar.

Zach Martin

There's a second piece that's easy to miss. Google also signed a separate 15 year agreement for another 2,700 megawatts from Constellation's existing PJM generation fleet. So you have 890 megawatts of new capacity, and 2,700 megawatts of power that's already running. Add them together and you're around 3,590 megawatts of firm supply under contract. Think of it like a gym membership versus a new gym. Google is buying a seat in the building that exists, and also paying to expand the weight room.

Emily Martin

I like that, though let me add a caution about the words. The 2,700 is existing output. The 890 is incremental. Those are very different things for the grid, because only one of them adds electrons that weren't there before. And the 890 isn't one project. It's spread across eleven units, so each unit gets its own slice of work and its own regulatory path.

Zach Martin

Right. And it's not only Google. In late September, Amazon signed a 20 year agreement with Constellation backing about 190 megawatts of planned uprate capacity at Calvert Cliffs in Maryland. That's part of a broader agreement of roughly 690 megawatts, and it's tied to a modernization program of more than $3 billion and a license renewal effort targeted for 2030 to 2032. Then on October 5 and 6, the Department of Energy announced a conditional loan commitment of up to $4.2 billion for Vistra, which connects to Meta's earlier 2.6 gigawatt agreement. So three of the biggest buyers of electricity on earth are all pointing at the same asset class.

Emily Martin

So let's explain what an uprate actually is, because the word covers a lot of ground. A reactor license sets a maximum power level, a ceiling on heat output. A plant can't change that ceiling without Nuclear Regulatory Commission approval. The NRC sorts uprates into three categories. The smallest is the measurement uncertainty recapture uprate, or MUR, which is less than 2 percent.

Zach Martin

Two percent doesn't sound like much.

Emily Martin

It sounds small, but look at how it works. You install more precise feedwater flow measurement, and that flow is used to calculate reactor power. When you measure better, you're less uncertain about the actual power level, and the safety analysis doesn't have to assume as big a cushion. You aren't building anything big. You're getting credit for knowing more. The second category is the stretch uprate, typically up to 7 percent. It stays within the plant's design capacity and usually involves changes to instrumentation setpoints, not major plant modifications.

Zach Martin

And the third is the heavy lifter.

Emily Martin

Yes, the extended power uprate. Those are anything above a stretch uprate, and the NRC has approved increases as high as 20 percent. These need significant modifications to major balance of plant equipment, such as high pressure turbines, condensate pumps and motors, main generators, and transformers. It's the non nuclear side of the plant, the part that turns steam into electricity. And to push more power, the utility typically refuels with slightly more enriched fuel or a higher share of new fuel, so the core makes more heat and more steam.

Zach Martin

That lines up with what Constellation described. Turbines, controls, efficiency upgrades. It's capital spending on the machinery around the reactor. And that's a capital discipline story, Emily. You're not betting on a technology that has never run. You're replacing parts on a machine with decades of operating history. It's like a runner who doesn't need a new body, just better shoes and a better training plan.

Emily Martin

The track record supports that. According to the NRC, as of January 2022 it had approved 171 uprates, adding about 8,030 megawatts electric. That's roughly the equivalent of eight new reactors, achieved without a single new site. Utilities have been doing this since the 1970s. So the idea isn't novel. What's novel is who's paying and how big the customers are.

Zach Martin

Let's talk about speed, because that's the reason this works now. A greenfield reactor needs a site, a license, financing, years of construction, and a connection to the grid. An uprate starts with a license amendment and equipment orders. The EIA noted back in 2012 that uprate capacity can be put in place quickly compared with new construction, and only as needed by demand growth. That second part matters to me. You can stage the spending in step with demand instead of betting everything on a single date.

Emily Martin

But I want to be careful. Quick doesn't mean instant. The NRC process involves a license amendment request, a public notice, a 30 day comment window, and 60 days to request a hearing. Then the staff does its technical review and issues a safety evaluation. The Vistra example is useful here. The NRC's list of anticipated applications shows Vistra planning to file for Perry in the third quarter of 2029, Beaver Valley Unit 2 in 2030, Beaver Valley Unit 1 in 2031, and Davis Besse in 2032. All four are listed as extended power uprates. So even though the financing is moving now, the regulatory filings are spread across several years.